Who is going to win Super Bowl XLIX?

BY STEVEN SILBERMAN

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With Wild-Card Weekend here, the Big Game in Glendale, Arizona is only about a month away. While it may appear that the path to the Lombardi Trophy is wide open (every team except Carolina has 10, 11, or 12 wins), there are only a few teams that have a good chance to win it all.

If you look at every Super Bowl winner since the new millennium, it is clear that teams need good defenses to become world champions. Although we may forget about how important defense really is, teams that can generate sacks, force turnovers, stop the run, and play tough in the red zone have a huge advantage over other clubs. Most Super Bowl winners also had solid running games and about half had elite quarterbacks. I used this criteria to come up with my most likely teams to win it.

 

Teams we can eliminate right off the bat:

 

• Arizona: I was rooting for this team, but there is no way the Cardinals could have done it with their QB.
• Carolina: This 7-8-1 playoff club has a shaky defense and lacks talent at offensive skill positions. Cam can’t do it all by himself.
• Dallas: It all depends on DeMarco Murray, who has carried the Cowboys this season with 392 touches. I think his workload takes a toll on his postseason performance and the Cowboys suffer as a result. And then there’s the pressure, which I think is too big for Tony Romo too handle. I don’t think Tony ever wins the Super Bowl in his career. This is why.
• Indianapolis: Andrew Luck is great, but the defense and running game are suspect. Don’t let Indy’s record fool you – the Colts won every game against their weak division this season.
• Cincinnati: Great running game. Last in the league in sacks, but first in the league in interceptions. Andy Dalton. You just don’t know what you’re going to get. They’re too inconsistent and aren’t winners in the postseason historically.

Good, but not good enough:

 

• Denver: Denver has an extremely tough road to the Super Bowl. Manning has been shaky at times recently, and he doesn’t have a great rusher to go to. Manning historically has not had successful postseason teams, and unfortunately for him this trend is not going to change this year.
• Pittsburgh: The Steelers needed Le’Veon Bell, but their defense is not good enough to support even the best QB/RB/WR trio in the league.
• Baltimore: Baltimore is a more complete team than the aforementioned group and is now the biggest threat to New England in the AFC. Yes, Baltimore got great pressure against Big Ben last night, but the Ravens won’t have that kind of success against their future opponents because they will run the ball more effectively than the Steelers did. Baltimore also lacks explosive offensive playmakers.

 

The most complete teams:

 

• Detroit: The Lions would have had no chance without Suh against Dallas, but Suh winning his appeal changes everything. The Lions have running backs that can run and catch, two great wide receivers, and a QB that can ball. The scary thing for opponents is that their strength lies in their front seven, which has the potential to carry them to the Lombardi trophy.
• Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers is the best football player in the world. His ability to outscore other teams so often puts tremendous pressure not only on opposing defenses, but on opposing quarterbacks to keep up with him. This helps the Packers defense force mistakes. They are going to be incredibly tough to beat.
• Seattle: The Seahawks, who are unbelievable at Qualcomm, have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They don’t turn the ball over much on offense, while the bruising Lynch rarely has negative runs. I think the Lions and the Packers are the only NFC teams with a shot to upset the Seahawks in their house.  
• New England: I think the Patriots represent the AFC in the Super Bowl almost by default, but they will not win the Super Bowl. The Pats are good, but I will take the three teams below them every time.