NFL Running Backs: An Endangered Species

“Running the Ball is a Waste of Time.”

That’s what sportscaster and Super Bowl-winning QB Phil Simms said after the Bears threw 6 straight passes to score on their opening drive on Thanksgiving Day against the Lions.

Simms wasn’t totally serious, but he wasn’t really joking either. Although running the ball is obviously still an integral part of the game, it would be foolish not to agree with the notion that running backs in today’s NFL are not what they used to be. What ever happened to the Jerome Bettises? The Curtis Martins? The Shaun Alexanders? The LaDanian Tomlinsons? It wasn’t that long ago when these guys were breaking records and carrying their teams to the playoffs.

In less than just 10 years, it seems evident that the traditional NFL running back is an endangered species. Just look at the trends:

• All but only a few teams have committees at the position.
• Running backs are now being paid like punters and kickers.
• The first running back taken in this past draft was the latest ever at pick #54.

Let’s face it. The NFL is now dominated by the pass, and the extent to which it does is continuing to grow. Check out the chart below.

 

 

Peyton Manning and Trent Green were the only QBs to throw for over 4,000 yards in 2003. NINE guys accomplished that feat in 2013. Whoa.

So why are teams electing to throw more and more often? Yes, defensive lineman are getting better against the run. Yes, offenses are improving at utilizing spread formations. Yes, freakishly huge and fast tight ends are becoming very difficult to cover. But the biggest factor, by far, is penalties.

For some time it has felt like defensive players can’t legally hit the QB anymore, and now it seems like they can’t touch wide receivers either. The NFL decided to “re-emphasize” illegal contact starting this season, and boy has it showed. The following is from an ESPN article in October:

  

“Statistics released by the league on Friday reveal that through the first five weeks of the season, there have been nearly four times as many illegal contact penalties as there were through the first five weeks of 2013. And there have been more than twice as many defensive holding penalties. Illegal contact has increased from 15 calls in Weeks 1-5 last year to 59 calls this year. Defensive holding has increased from 52 in Weeks 1-5 last year to 115 this year.”

 

And as a result, “QBs have been more successful than ever: The NFL-wide completion percentage of 63.7 and interception rate of 2.4 are both the best through five weeks since at least 1950, according to STATS.”

 

We have seen this happen before. Back in 2004, the NFL decided to get tougher on illegal contact. The number of penalties increased to 191 – up from 79 in the previous season. Not coincidentally, that year Peyton Manning threw for a then-NFL record 49 touchdown passes. Defenses began to adjust so they would stop getting flagged, and passing yardage exploded. This is depicted in the illustration below.

 

 

 

 

So by 2017, the number of penalties called should revert back to normal levels. Passing yardage will continue to increase to historic heights. So why is the NFL doing this? 

Benefits for the NFL

Richard Sherman blames fantasy football for the increase in illegal-contact penalties - he thinks fans want to see more points scored. He is on the right track.

Let me ask you a question. Which is more exciting, this play or this play? Most fans would say the pass play - just listen to the crowd noise. The NFL knows this and is doing something about it.

People not only forget that the National Football League is a business, but how big of a business it is. The NFL's annual revenue is approximately $9 billion and the market capitalization of all 32 teams is around $46 billion.

 

 

Forty-six. Billion. Dollars.

 

At that market cap, the NFL would be the 106th-biggest company in the S&P 500, making it more valuable than companies like FedEx, Time Warner, DirecTv, and Yahoo! Holy @!#%.

 

 

Okay, Steven. We get it. The NFL is really big, but what does this have to do with running backs?

 

 

Simple. Fans want to see the ball in the air. They want to see more scoring. This makes the game more exciting for fans, which leads to more ticket sales and advertising revenue for Roger Goodell's "non-profit" organization. The NFL's popularity grows with the passing game, and in turn so does its value. For example, Jerry Jones purchased the Cowboys for $150 million in 1989. Today, the team is worth $3.2 billion.

 

Mr. Commissioner has set a $25 billion revenue target to be hit by 2027. An NFL with $25 billion in annual revenue would be worth $121 billion in market cap. That compares to the current size of Home Depot, the 35th-biggest company in the S&P 500. The league will become even more pass-happy in order to meet this lofty, yet realistic goal.

 

The Future of the Running Back

 

Running backs these days are getting paid dirt, and for good reason. Almost every multiyear contract signed since the new CBA agreement has failed to live up to expectations. Do you remember Brandon Jackson? How about Joseph Addai?

 

Running backs have the shortest career span of any position at 2.57 years. Their market value is going to continue to plummet because they are so indispensable. For example, LeGarette Blount had a great performance last week for the Patriots immediately after being signed, making it unnecessary for Jonas Gray, who ran for 201 yards and 4 touchdowns the previous game, to play a single snap.

 

Before you know it, the running back position is going to become substantially less talented. The best athletes are going to opt to play other positions because that is where the money is. This will start during high school competition, and then eventually trickle to the college and professional levels.