My Super Bowl Pick

BY STEVEN SILBERMAN

(If you are reading this from email, click here for a more pleasurable viewing experience. Follow Steven on Twitter @ssilberman2012)

 

On January 4^th, I wrote “I think the Patriots represent the AFC in the Super Bowl almost by default, but they will not win the Super Bowl.” (see my older posts)

So you know who I’m picking. I thought Seattle would beat the Packers, but not the way they did. No one saw that coming.

 
We are going to be telling our kids about that legendary game because of the remarkable, improbable plays the Seahawks made.
 

What I’m talking about:

1.     The fake-field-goal-pass, which were Seattle’s first points.

2.     Calling a handoff to Lynch on a 3-and-6 to get a first down with time working against the Hawks.

3.     Recovering the onside kick after the Seahawks made it 14-19.

4.     Russell Wilson throws up a prayer across the field while under duress to convert the 2-point try after leading  20-19.

5.     Wilson completes a bomb to Kearse for the win in OT after throwing 4 picks on targets to the WR.

The Super Bowl will be a fantastic contest and it should be A LOT closer than last year.

Both teams are great blah, blah, blah…here are some unobvious reasons why I like Seattle:

·       Glendale is much closer to Seattle than Boston, so there should be more Seahawks fans at the game.

·       LeGarrette Blount fumbles. Marshawn Lynch does not.

·       Russell Wilson is getting a new contract. If he wins, it will be of historic magnitude.

 

Of course Wilson will make history if he wins his second consecutive championship at such
a young age, but he also has millions of dollars on the line.

 

 

 

4 Takeaways From This Weekend's Games

1. Quarterbacks Rule


·         3 of the 4 teams remaining have signal-callers who have won Super Bowls in the past – young Andrew Luck is the only one who hasn’t.

·         Tom Brady has the most playoff starts of any QB in league history. Peyton Manning has the most playoff losses in league history.

·         Russell Wilson is 26-2 at home in his career, meaning he wins at home 93% of the time.

 

 

2. Veterans Who’ve Been There Before, Do It Again

·         Julius Peppers saved a touchdown AND forced a turnover against Dallas: Watch here.

·         Tom Brady ran four long yards for a key touchdown on a third-and-goal: Watch here. 

·         Owen Daniels catches a huge touchdown pass from Joe Flacco: Watch here.

 

3. The Fourth-Down Play with Dez Bryant Was The Correct Call

It sucks, but it’s true. Dez seemed to have possession of the football and stretched out to try to cross the plane for six points. If he wanted to, I’m sure he could’ve secured the ball by turning and landing on his back, but then he would not have been able to score as he would have been short of the goal line. It’s a ridiculous rule that cost Dez an amazing reception, but in the NFL, refs make calls based on precedent rulings.

In this particular instance, a rule known as “The Calvin Johnson Rule” took effect. Here is where that rule stems from. It’s controversial, but based on that call, oddly made by the same referee, it is the right one.

 

4. Home Sweet Home

 

·         The Packers, who are 9-0 at home this season, warded off the Cowboys, who were 8-0 on the road during the regular season.

·         The Seahawks and Patriots are 8-1 at home this season.

·         The Broncos were 8-0 at home this season before Indy turned their entire organization upside-down. Anything can happen in the playoffs.

 

 
Championship Game Predictions:

The Packers, Seahawks, and Patriots are 3 of the 4 teams I said have a real shot at winning the Super Bowl in my last post, and here they are in the Final Four.

AFC: I will stand by New England this weekend. I don’t imagine the game will be too close either. The Colts don’t have a good rushing attack, and their receivers will struggle against the Patriots outstanding secondary. The Pats will put up too many points for Andrew Luck and company to keep up with. New England wins 38-17.

NFC: Man, this is going to be like the best game. Ever. I think the Seahawks will win because they are at home, but the Packers are great and have a solid chance to win. I believe the winner of this game beats New England in the Super Bowl.

Who is going to win Super Bowl XLIX?

BY STEVEN SILBERMAN

(If you are reading this from email, click here for a more pleasurable viewing experience. Follow Steven on Twitter @ssilberman2012)

With Wild-Card Weekend here, the Big Game in Glendale, Arizona is only about a month away. While it may appear that the path to the Lombardi Trophy is wide open (every team except Carolina has 10, 11, or 12 wins), there are only a few teams that have a good chance to win it all.

If you look at every Super Bowl winner since the new millennium, it is clear that teams need good defenses to become world champions. Although we may forget about how important defense really is, teams that can generate sacks, force turnovers, stop the run, and play tough in the red zone have a huge advantage over other clubs. Most Super Bowl winners also had solid running games and about half had elite quarterbacks. I used this criteria to come up with my most likely teams to win it.

 

Teams we can eliminate right off the bat:

 

• Arizona: I was rooting for this team, but there is no way the Cardinals could have done it with their QB.
• Carolina: This 7-8-1 playoff club has a shaky defense and lacks talent at offensive skill positions. Cam can’t do it all by himself.
• Dallas: It all depends on DeMarco Murray, who has carried the Cowboys this season with 392 touches. I think his workload takes a toll on his postseason performance and the Cowboys suffer as a result. And then there’s the pressure, which I think is too big for Tony Romo too handle. I don’t think Tony ever wins the Super Bowl in his career. This is why.
• Indianapolis: Andrew Luck is great, but the defense and running game are suspect. Don’t let Indy’s record fool you – the Colts won every game against their weak division this season.
• Cincinnati: Great running game. Last in the league in sacks, but first in the league in interceptions. Andy Dalton. You just don’t know what you’re going to get. They’re too inconsistent and aren’t winners in the postseason historically.

Good, but not good enough:

 

• Denver: Denver has an extremely tough road to the Super Bowl. Manning has been shaky at times recently, and he doesn’t have a great rusher to go to. Manning historically has not had successful postseason teams, and unfortunately for him this trend is not going to change this year.
• Pittsburgh: The Steelers needed Le’Veon Bell, but their defense is not good enough to support even the best QB/RB/WR trio in the league.
• Baltimore: Baltimore is a more complete team than the aforementioned group and is now the biggest threat to New England in the AFC. Yes, Baltimore got great pressure against Big Ben last night, but the Ravens won’t have that kind of success against their future opponents because they will run the ball more effectively than the Steelers did. Baltimore also lacks explosive offensive playmakers.

 

The most complete teams:

 

• Detroit: The Lions would have had no chance without Suh against Dallas, but Suh winning his appeal changes everything. The Lions have running backs that can run and catch, two great wide receivers, and a QB that can ball. The scary thing for opponents is that their strength lies in their front seven, which has the potential to carry them to the Lombardi trophy.
• Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers is the best football player in the world. His ability to outscore other teams so often puts tremendous pressure not only on opposing defenses, but on opposing quarterbacks to keep up with him. This helps the Packers defense force mistakes. They are going to be incredibly tough to beat.
• Seattle: The Seahawks, who are unbelievable at Qualcomm, have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They don’t turn the ball over much on offense, while the bruising Lynch rarely has negative runs. I think the Lions and the Packers are the only NFC teams with a shot to upset the Seahawks in their house.  
• New England: I think the Patriots represent the AFC in the Super Bowl almost by default, but they will not win the Super Bowl. The Pats are good, but I will take the three teams below them every time.