NFL Running Backs: An Endangered Species

“Running the Ball is a Waste of Time.”

That’s what sportscaster and Super Bowl-winning QB Phil Simms said after the Bears threw 6 straight passes to score on their opening drive on Thanksgiving Day against the Lions.

Simms wasn’t totally serious, but he wasn’t really joking either. Although running the ball is obviously still an integral part of the game, it would be foolish not to agree with the notion that running backs in today’s NFL are not what they used to be. What ever happened to the Jerome Bettises? The Curtis Martins? The Shaun Alexanders? The LaDanian Tomlinsons? It wasn’t that long ago when these guys were breaking records and carrying their teams to the playoffs.

In less than just 10 years, it seems evident that the traditional NFL running back is an endangered species. Just look at the trends:

• All but only a few teams have committees at the position.
• Running backs are now being paid like punters and kickers.
• The first running back taken in this past draft was the latest ever at pick #54.

Let’s face it. The NFL is now dominated by the pass, and the extent to which it does is continuing to grow. Check out the chart below.

 

 

Peyton Manning and Trent Green were the only QBs to throw for over 4,000 yards in 2003. NINE guys accomplished that feat in 2013. Whoa.

So why are teams electing to throw more and more often? Yes, defensive lineman are getting better against the run. Yes, offenses are improving at utilizing spread formations. Yes, freakishly huge and fast tight ends are becoming very difficult to cover. But the biggest factor, by far, is penalties.

For some time it has felt like defensive players can’t legally hit the QB anymore, and now it seems like they can’t touch wide receivers either. The NFL decided to “re-emphasize” illegal contact starting this season, and boy has it showed. The following is from an ESPN article in October:

  

“Statistics released by the league on Friday reveal that through the first five weeks of the season, there have been nearly four times as many illegal contact penalties as there were through the first five weeks of 2013. And there have been more than twice as many defensive holding penalties. Illegal contact has increased from 15 calls in Weeks 1-5 last year to 59 calls this year. Defensive holding has increased from 52 in Weeks 1-5 last year to 115 this year.”

 

And as a result, “QBs have been more successful than ever: The NFL-wide completion percentage of 63.7 and interception rate of 2.4 are both the best through five weeks since at least 1950, according to STATS.”

 

We have seen this happen before. Back in 2004, the NFL decided to get tougher on illegal contact. The number of penalties increased to 191 – up from 79 in the previous season. Not coincidentally, that year Peyton Manning threw for a then-NFL record 49 touchdown passes. Defenses began to adjust so they would stop getting flagged, and passing yardage exploded. This is depicted in the illustration below.

 

 

 

 

So by 2017, the number of penalties called should revert back to normal levels. Passing yardage will continue to increase to historic heights. So why is the NFL doing this? 

Benefits for the NFL

Richard Sherman blames fantasy football for the increase in illegal-contact penalties - he thinks fans want to see more points scored. He is on the right track.

Let me ask you a question. Which is more exciting, this play or this play? Most fans would say the pass play - just listen to the crowd noise. The NFL knows this and is doing something about it.

People not only forget that the National Football League is a business, but how big of a business it is. The NFL's annual revenue is approximately $9 billion and the market capitalization of all 32 teams is around $46 billion.

 

 

Forty-six. Billion. Dollars.

 

At that market cap, the NFL would be the 106th-biggest company in the S&P 500, making it more valuable than companies like FedEx, Time Warner, DirecTv, and Yahoo! Holy @!#%.

 

 

Okay, Steven. We get it. The NFL is really big, but what does this have to do with running backs?

 

 

Simple. Fans want to see the ball in the air. They want to see more scoring. This makes the game more exciting for fans, which leads to more ticket sales and advertising revenue for Roger Goodell's "non-profit" organization. The NFL's popularity grows with the passing game, and in turn so does its value. For example, Jerry Jones purchased the Cowboys for $150 million in 1989. Today, the team is worth $3.2 billion.

 

Mr. Commissioner has set a $25 billion revenue target to be hit by 2027. An NFL with $25 billion in annual revenue would be worth $121 billion in market cap. That compares to the current size of Home Depot, the 35th-biggest company in the S&P 500. The league will become even more pass-happy in order to meet this lofty, yet realistic goal.

 

The Future of the Running Back

 

Running backs these days are getting paid dirt, and for good reason. Almost every multiyear contract signed since the new CBA agreement has failed to live up to expectations. Do you remember Brandon Jackson? How about Joseph Addai?

 

Running backs have the shortest career span of any position at 2.57 years. Their market value is going to continue to plummet because they are so indispensable. For example, LeGarette Blount had a great performance last week for the Patriots immediately after being signed, making it unnecessary for Jonas Gray, who ran for 201 yards and 4 touchdowns the previous game, to play a single snap.

 

Before you know it, the running back position is going to become substantially less talented. The best athletes are going to opt to play other positions because that is where the money is. This will start during high school competition, and then eventually trickle to the college and professional levels.

 

4 things not being talked about enough in the NFL:

1. New England’s Recent Dominance

It feels like forever ago when Kansas City blew out New England 41-14 on MNF, where Jamaal Charles scored 3 touchdowns and the Chiefs defense dominated Brady. Since then, the Pats have won 6 straight games.

What is so impressive is that 5 of these wins have been by at least 22 points, against playoff contenders like Denver, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati. The Pats, who are undefeated at home, are my pick right now to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl against either the Cardinals or Packers.



The biggest reason for their success over this stretch is undoubtedly Rob Gronkowski, who looks to be 100% healed from tearing his right ACL and MCL in week 14 last season. Since that game against the Chiefs, Gronk has caught 40 of his 53 targets (75%) for 587 yards and 6 touchdowns. Holy moly.  

 

2. Brian Hoyer's Success

Who in the world thought Johnny Manziel would only have been on the field for 5 snaps at this point in the season? Hoyer has faced arguably more pressure than any other quarterback this season since he won the starting job in the preseason. His impressive play thus far speaks volumes about his mental toughness and discipline.

Brian Hoyer is simply not getting enough credit for what he is doing. The Browns have only had 2 winning seasons since 1999, and Hoyer has his team in the thick of the playoff hunt at 6-4. Currently, Hoyer is leading the NFL with an average of 14.04 yards per completion. He's also third in the league with 43 completions of 20-plus yards. He led the largest comeback for a road team in NFL history in week 5. To top it all off, he’s thrown only 5 picks this season. And now he gets Josh Gordon back, who led the NFL in receiving last year.

 

Something tells me that Hoyer, a free agent after this season, signs a
 contract extension soon for somewhere around 5 years for $70 million.

 

3. The Oakland Raiders going 0-16

If they didn’t upset the previously 7-3 Kansas City Chiefs, the Raiders quite possibly could have become the second team to go 0-16 in NFL history (2008 Lions). They have only one remaining opponent (the Rams) who are under .500 this season. The Raiders have not reached the playoffs or attained a winning record in 11 seasons.

 

 

4. How bad the NFC South is

On October 30^th, I posted a blog going off on the NFC South. At the time, I hammered Atlanta for being a huge disappointment at 2-6 and pointed out that those 2 wins were within the division, proving how awful these teams are.

Now Atlanta is in first place in the NFC South at 4-6. Guess where those 2 consecutive wins came from? Divisional opponents. The Saints got pummeled by a mediocre Bengals team on Sunday at the Superdome and Tampa finally got its second win against the woeful Redskins (who should be starting Colt McCoy – see my first blog post. RGIII aggravates me.).

Ultimately, I predict the Saints will win the division and 7-9 and host the Seattle Seahawks in the first round of the playoffs, with the Mark Sanchez-led Eagles missing the cut. This probably seems strange to you, and you can’t put your finger on why it is.

Remember in 2010 when the 7-9 Seahawks upset the defending champion New Orleans Saints in the first round of the playoffs? Nope? How about Marshawn Lynch's legendary 67-yard-run? Oh. Now you remember. I think the Saints get revenge for that game this postseason. Just a hunch.

 

Adrian Peterson's Potential Return

The Minnesota Vikings need Adrian Peterson back - and they need him now.

After winning two straight games, they are 4-5 and very much alive in the playoff hunt. Minnesota has two huge showdowns against the Bears and Packers coming up, and the team still has four divisional contests to play in its final seven games.

The story of Adrian Peterson's 2014 campaign may just be beginning to unfold. 

AP has the opportunity to take the Vikings to the postseason and remind everyone that he – and not DeMarco Murray – is the best running back in the NFL. He has done it before in years past and he can do it again. Just two years ago he was the league MVP, falling just short of Eric Dickerson’s legendary rushing record.

This is one of the premier players in the league we’re talking about. While his absence has been discussed in the media, it is more about the situation involving him and not how it has impacted the Minnesota Vikings.

Peterson has done so much for Minnesota and that cannot be forgotten. He has toted the rock over 2,000 times and scored over 85 touchdowns in his outstanding career. It has never been about him; it has always been about the team. He is one of the greatest Vikings ever and the team badly needs him on the field.  

Adrian Peterson is the third-fastest player to ever reach 10,000 yards rushing.

The NFLPA is demanding his reinstatement, and the Vikings said this today: "In regards to Adrian Peterson's status with the Minnesota Vikings, at this time his potential reinstatement is under NFL guidelines. As an organization, we respect and understand the league's process. In the interim, our focus is on the team and preparing for this weekend's game against the Bears."

We all know the Vikings had to say that, given the recent destruction of the images of the Ravens and the NFL in dealing with Ray Rice's off-the-field issues. And we all know the players and coaches want to see him back. We all want to see him back. We are probably about to.

The best team in the NFL that no one is talking about

It’s the Arizona Cardinals. And there is no question about it.

 

Why Bruce Arian's club is my favorite to win the NFC right now:

They are currently 6-1 and now get to face the Cowboys without Tony Romo. I would not be surprised if they represented the NFC in the Super Bowl this year. They are succeeding due to outstanding rushing defense, takeaways on defense, protecting the ball on offense, and efficient special teams.

Arizona’s defense is undoubtedly the driver of this team's dominant play in 2014. It is allowing only 3.3 YPC against the run and has only let up one run of over 20 yards this year. Both are tops in the NFL. Safeties Tony Jefferson and Rashad Johnson are leading the team in tackles, which is a very telling sign of how great this defense is against the run.

Teams have to chuck the rock to move it against the Cardinals, which is why Arizona gives up the most passing yards per game. This hasn’t been a problem for the birds though—they are third in the league in interceptions.

Jerraud Powers leads the Cardinals in interceptions with three on the season.

 

On the other side of the ball, Arizona’s offense is hugely benefitting from contributions from Fitzgerald, John Brown, Michael Floyd, and John Carlson. The team's most dynamic weapon, however, is RB Andre Ellington.

While Ellington has been average as a runner, he has been exceptional as a pass catcher (check out this video). The dude is on pace for 64 receptions this season—right now he has only two less than Larry Fitzgerald—and he is averaging nearly 10 yards per catch. This is an offensive element that the Cardinals have not been able to enjoy in quite awhile (Rashard Mendenhall had 18 catches in 2013; Beanie Wells had 10 catches as the starter in 2011).

Not enough credit is going to Carson Palmer, and even Drew Stanton, who played well in place of Palmer when he was out. Combined, both have only thrown one interception all season and Palmer is only being sacked once per game.



How about rookie kicker Chandler Catanzaro? He is a perfect 16 for 16 this year.
 

Where Arizona needs to improve to get to the Super Bowl:

• This front seven must get more pressure on the QB. The Cards are second-worst in the league in sacks with 7. By comparison, the league-leading Buffalo Bills have four times as many!
• Ellington must improve as an inside runner. He is averaging only 3.6 YPC. He is young and becoming a more complete, patient running back, which is why I like this stat to go up.
• Palmer must stay healthy. While Stanton has played well in his absence, the Cards need Palmer to be under center to make a playoff run.

If the Cardinals can continue to be this efficient on offense and as dominant on defense, a Super Bowl win is not as crazy as you might think. Just look at the recent championship squads; the Seahawks, Ravens, and Giants all had top-notch defenses.