My Least Favorite Player in the NFL

BY STEVEN SILBERMAN
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It’s Jay Cutler.

Yes, Cutler is very talented and can make plays. Yes, he has had some productive seasons in his career. But did you also know Jay Cutler is the highest paid player in the NFL? 

That’s right – Cutler is paid more money than guys like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and J.J. Watt.

After signing a 7-year, $126.7 million contract, Mr. Cutler has responded by leading the Bears to a mere 5 wins this season, good for last place in the NFC North behind the Vikings, who are led by a rookie QB. Oh, and he leads the NFL in turnovers too.

It seems that the Bears are prepared to give up on him, which means Jay is likely to become what he should have been for a while now – a backup quarterback.

My problem with Cutler is not his lack of talent. It’s his awful attitude. In an offense with athletes like Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Martellus Bennett, Cutler has no excuse to be as terrible as he has been. The worst part about him is that when he messes up, he always appears to put the blame on others and never himself. He constantly looks soft, lethargic, and unhappy.

The most ridiculous situation of Jay’s career was in the playoffs in 2011, when he did not finish a game against the Packers because of “an injury.” Many players and fans in the NFL question the legitimacy of the injury and Cutler’s lack of toughness in response to it. The Bears ended up losing that game.

After the contest, Cardinal’s DL Darnell Dockett Tweeted: "If I'm on chicago team jay cutler has to wait till me and the team shower get dressed and leave before he comes in the locker room! #FACT."

Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew also Tweeted: "All I'm saying is that he can finish the game on a hurt knee... I played the whole season on one..."

And how did Bears fans respond? Jones-Drew received death threats from them. While this is obviously wrong, one can’t deny that is true fanhood. Chicago has some of the best sports fans in the country, and they do not deserve a QB as pathetic as Jay Cutler, who has 1 playoff victory in 9 seasons in his career and is 1-11 against the rival Green Bay Packers. Chicago deserves someone like this, not like this.

This wouldn’t be the first time a team has come to their senses and given up on the Vanderbilt product. The Broncos, under offensive guru Josh McDaniels, traded Cutler after 2008. Cutler preceded to throw 26 interceptions the following season, while the Broncos have since become a dominant force in the AFC.

I hope everyone had a great Christmas. My gift to you is this Stephen A. Smith rant. Enjoy.

 

NFL Running Backs: An Endangered Species

“Running the Ball is a Waste of Time.”

That’s what sportscaster and Super Bowl-winning QB Phil Simms said after the Bears threw 6 straight passes to score on their opening drive on Thanksgiving Day against the Lions.

Simms wasn’t totally serious, but he wasn’t really joking either. Although running the ball is obviously still an integral part of the game, it would be foolish not to agree with the notion that running backs in today’s NFL are not what they used to be. What ever happened to the Jerome Bettises? The Curtis Martins? The Shaun Alexanders? The LaDanian Tomlinsons? It wasn’t that long ago when these guys were breaking records and carrying their teams to the playoffs.

In less than just 10 years, it seems evident that the traditional NFL running back is an endangered species. Just look at the trends:

• All but only a few teams have committees at the position.
• Running backs are now being paid like punters and kickers.
• The first running back taken in this past draft was the latest ever at pick #54.

Let’s face it. The NFL is now dominated by the pass, and the extent to which it does is continuing to grow. Check out the chart below.

 

 

Peyton Manning and Trent Green were the only QBs to throw for over 4,000 yards in 2003. NINE guys accomplished that feat in 2013. Whoa.

So why are teams electing to throw more and more often? Yes, defensive lineman are getting better against the run. Yes, offenses are improving at utilizing spread formations. Yes, freakishly huge and fast tight ends are becoming very difficult to cover. But the biggest factor, by far, is penalties.

For some time it has felt like defensive players can’t legally hit the QB anymore, and now it seems like they can’t touch wide receivers either. The NFL decided to “re-emphasize” illegal contact starting this season, and boy has it showed. The following is from an ESPN article in October:

  

“Statistics released by the league on Friday reveal that through the first five weeks of the season, there have been nearly four times as many illegal contact penalties as there were through the first five weeks of 2013. And there have been more than twice as many defensive holding penalties. Illegal contact has increased from 15 calls in Weeks 1-5 last year to 59 calls this year. Defensive holding has increased from 52 in Weeks 1-5 last year to 115 this year.”

 

And as a result, “QBs have been more successful than ever: The NFL-wide completion percentage of 63.7 and interception rate of 2.4 are both the best through five weeks since at least 1950, according to STATS.”

 

We have seen this happen before. Back in 2004, the NFL decided to get tougher on illegal contact. The number of penalties increased to 191 – up from 79 in the previous season. Not coincidentally, that year Peyton Manning threw for a then-NFL record 49 touchdown passes. Defenses began to adjust so they would stop getting flagged, and passing yardage exploded. This is depicted in the illustration below.

 

 

 

 

So by 2017, the number of penalties called should revert back to normal levels. Passing yardage will continue to increase to historic heights. So why is the NFL doing this? 

Benefits for the NFL

Richard Sherman blames fantasy football for the increase in illegal-contact penalties - he thinks fans want to see more points scored. He is on the right track.

Let me ask you a question. Which is more exciting, this play or this play? Most fans would say the pass play - just listen to the crowd noise. The NFL knows this and is doing something about it.

People not only forget that the National Football League is a business, but how big of a business it is. The NFL's annual revenue is approximately $9 billion and the market capitalization of all 32 teams is around $46 billion.

 

 

Forty-six. Billion. Dollars.

 

At that market cap, the NFL would be the 106th-biggest company in the S&P 500, making it more valuable than companies like FedEx, Time Warner, DirecTv, and Yahoo! Holy @!#%.

 

 

Okay, Steven. We get it. The NFL is really big, but what does this have to do with running backs?

 

 

Simple. Fans want to see the ball in the air. They want to see more scoring. This makes the game more exciting for fans, which leads to more ticket sales and advertising revenue for Roger Goodell's "non-profit" organization. The NFL's popularity grows with the passing game, and in turn so does its value. For example, Jerry Jones purchased the Cowboys for $150 million in 1989. Today, the team is worth $3.2 billion.

 

Mr. Commissioner has set a $25 billion revenue target to be hit by 2027. An NFL with $25 billion in annual revenue would be worth $121 billion in market cap. That compares to the current size of Home Depot, the 35th-biggest company in the S&P 500. The league will become even more pass-happy in order to meet this lofty, yet realistic goal.

 

The Future of the Running Back

 

Running backs these days are getting paid dirt, and for good reason. Almost every multiyear contract signed since the new CBA agreement has failed to live up to expectations. Do you remember Brandon Jackson? How about Joseph Addai?

 

Running backs have the shortest career span of any position at 2.57 years. Their market value is going to continue to plummet because they are so indispensable. For example, LeGarette Blount had a great performance last week for the Patriots immediately after being signed, making it unnecessary for Jonas Gray, who ran for 201 yards and 4 touchdowns the previous game, to play a single snap.

 

Before you know it, the running back position is going to become substantially less talented. The best athletes are going to opt to play other positions because that is where the money is. This will start during high school competition, and then eventually trickle to the college and professional levels.

 

4 things not being talked about enough in the NFL:

1. New England’s Recent Dominance

It feels like forever ago when Kansas City blew out New England 41-14 on MNF, where Jamaal Charles scored 3 touchdowns and the Chiefs defense dominated Brady. Since then, the Pats have won 6 straight games.

What is so impressive is that 5 of these wins have been by at least 22 points, against playoff contenders like Denver, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati. The Pats, who are undefeated at home, are my pick right now to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl against either the Cardinals or Packers.



The biggest reason for their success over this stretch is undoubtedly Rob Gronkowski, who looks to be 100% healed from tearing his right ACL and MCL in week 14 last season. Since that game against the Chiefs, Gronk has caught 40 of his 53 targets (75%) for 587 yards and 6 touchdowns. Holy moly.  

 

2. Brian Hoyer's Success

Who in the world thought Johnny Manziel would only have been on the field for 5 snaps at this point in the season? Hoyer has faced arguably more pressure than any other quarterback this season since he won the starting job in the preseason. His impressive play thus far speaks volumes about his mental toughness and discipline.

Brian Hoyer is simply not getting enough credit for what he is doing. The Browns have only had 2 winning seasons since 1999, and Hoyer has his team in the thick of the playoff hunt at 6-4. Currently, Hoyer is leading the NFL with an average of 14.04 yards per completion. He's also third in the league with 43 completions of 20-plus yards. He led the largest comeback for a road team in NFL history in week 5. To top it all off, he’s thrown only 5 picks this season. And now he gets Josh Gordon back, who led the NFL in receiving last year.

 

Something tells me that Hoyer, a free agent after this season, signs a
 contract extension soon for somewhere around 5 years for $70 million.

 

3. The Oakland Raiders going 0-16

If they didn’t upset the previously 7-3 Kansas City Chiefs, the Raiders quite possibly could have become the second team to go 0-16 in NFL history (2008 Lions). They have only one remaining opponent (the Rams) who are under .500 this season. The Raiders have not reached the playoffs or attained a winning record in 11 seasons.

 

 

4. How bad the NFC South is

On October 30^th, I posted a blog going off on the NFC South. At the time, I hammered Atlanta for being a huge disappointment at 2-6 and pointed out that those 2 wins were within the division, proving how awful these teams are.

Now Atlanta is in first place in the NFC South at 4-6. Guess where those 2 consecutive wins came from? Divisional opponents. The Saints got pummeled by a mediocre Bengals team on Sunday at the Superdome and Tampa finally got its second win against the woeful Redskins (who should be starting Colt McCoy – see my first blog post. RGIII aggravates me.).

Ultimately, I predict the Saints will win the division and 7-9 and host the Seattle Seahawks in the first round of the playoffs, with the Mark Sanchez-led Eagles missing the cut. This probably seems strange to you, and you can’t put your finger on why it is.

Remember in 2010 when the 7-9 Seahawks upset the defending champion New Orleans Saints in the first round of the playoffs? Nope? How about Marshawn Lynch's legendary 67-yard-run? Oh. Now you remember. I think the Saints get revenge for that game this postseason. Just a hunch.

 

Adrian Peterson's Potential Return

The Minnesota Vikings need Adrian Peterson back - and they need him now.

After winning two straight games, they are 4-5 and very much alive in the playoff hunt. Minnesota has two huge showdowns against the Bears and Packers coming up, and the team still has four divisional contests to play in its final seven games.

The story of Adrian Peterson's 2014 campaign may just be beginning to unfold. 

AP has the opportunity to take the Vikings to the postseason and remind everyone that he – and not DeMarco Murray – is the best running back in the NFL. He has done it before in years past and he can do it again. Just two years ago he was the league MVP, falling just short of Eric Dickerson’s legendary rushing record.

This is one of the premier players in the league we’re talking about. While his absence has been discussed in the media, it is more about the situation involving him and not how it has impacted the Minnesota Vikings.

Peterson has done so much for Minnesota and that cannot be forgotten. He has toted the rock over 2,000 times and scored over 85 touchdowns in his outstanding career. It has never been about him; it has always been about the team. He is one of the greatest Vikings ever and the team badly needs him on the field.  

Adrian Peterson is the third-fastest player to ever reach 10,000 yards rushing.

The NFLPA is demanding his reinstatement, and the Vikings said this today: "In regards to Adrian Peterson's status with the Minnesota Vikings, at this time his potential reinstatement is under NFL guidelines. As an organization, we respect and understand the league's process. In the interim, our focus is on the team and preparing for this weekend's game against the Bears."

We all know the Vikings had to say that, given the recent destruction of the images of the Ravens and the NFL in dealing with Ray Rice's off-the-field issues. And we all know the players and coaches want to see him back. We all want to see him back. We are probably about to.

The best team in the NFL that no one is talking about

It’s the Arizona Cardinals. And there is no question about it.

 

Why Bruce Arian's club is my favorite to win the NFC right now:

They are currently 6-1 and now get to face the Cowboys without Tony Romo. I would not be surprised if they represented the NFC in the Super Bowl this year. They are succeeding due to outstanding rushing defense, takeaways on defense, protecting the ball on offense, and efficient special teams.

Arizona’s defense is undoubtedly the driver of this team's dominant play in 2014. It is allowing only 3.3 YPC against the run and has only let up one run of over 20 yards this year. Both are tops in the NFL. Safeties Tony Jefferson and Rashad Johnson are leading the team in tackles, which is a very telling sign of how great this defense is against the run.

Teams have to chuck the rock to move it against the Cardinals, which is why Arizona gives up the most passing yards per game. This hasn’t been a problem for the birds though—they are third in the league in interceptions.

Jerraud Powers leads the Cardinals in interceptions with three on the season.

 

On the other side of the ball, Arizona’s offense is hugely benefitting from contributions from Fitzgerald, John Brown, Michael Floyd, and John Carlson. The team's most dynamic weapon, however, is RB Andre Ellington.

While Ellington has been average as a runner, he has been exceptional as a pass catcher (check out this video). The dude is on pace for 64 receptions this season—right now he has only two less than Larry Fitzgerald—and he is averaging nearly 10 yards per catch. This is an offensive element that the Cardinals have not been able to enjoy in quite awhile (Rashard Mendenhall had 18 catches in 2013; Beanie Wells had 10 catches as the starter in 2011).

Not enough credit is going to Carson Palmer, and even Drew Stanton, who played well in place of Palmer when he was out. Combined, both have only thrown one interception all season and Palmer is only being sacked once per game.



How about rookie kicker Chandler Catanzaro? He is a perfect 16 for 16 this year.
 

Where Arizona needs to improve to get to the Super Bowl:

• This front seven must get more pressure on the QB. The Cards are second-worst in the league in sacks with 7. By comparison, the league-leading Buffalo Bills have four times as many!
• Ellington must improve as an inside runner. He is averaging only 3.6 YPC. He is young and becoming a more complete, patient running back, which is why I like this stat to go up.
• Palmer must stay healthy. While Stanton has played well in his absence, the Cards need Palmer to be under center to make a playoff run.

If the Cardinals can continue to be this efficient on offense and as dominant on defense, a Super Bowl win is not as crazy as you might think. Just look at the recent championship squads; the Seahawks, Ravens, and Giants all had top-notch defenses.

 

The NFC South: Football’s Worst Division

What has happened to these teams?

Their combined record is 9-20-1. Their combined road record is 2-12-1. Tampa Bay gives up the most yards of any team in the NFL. The Falcons are second. The Saints are fifth.

It feels like forever ago when Matt Ryan led the Falcon’s to the best regular season record in the NFC in 2010, only to lose to the eventual Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers in the first round.  Or when the Saints won the big game in 2009. Or when the Carolina Panthers went 12-4 last year.   

The most disappointing of the bunch is undoubtedly the Atlanta Falcons. Finishing 4-12 last season, many picked them as a rebound candidate. After starting 2014 at 2-1, the Falcons have dropped 5 consecutive games. Matt Ryan and the Falcons used to be one of the scariest teams to play at home, but now opponents see Atlanta on the schedule and start to salivate.  And just when you thought they might save their season and beat Detroit in London, they choked and dropped a 21-point first half lead.  The Falcons can once again kiss their playoff hopes goodbye.  Okay, so it’s just that Atlanta is really bad, you say.  Maybe the rest of the division isn’t so bad.  Well my friend, you should know that Atlanta’s only 2 wins were in the division.

And don’t even get me started on Tampa Bay. They are going to be the NFL’s new Raiders and Jaguars. This team has no quarterback and a baaaaad defense. Doug Martin teased everyone years ago and now no one believes in his ability. Not to mention the Vincent Jackson trade rumors. This says it all.

When the playoffs roll around, it’s expected that you are going to see Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees, but the latter is in serious jeopardy at the moment. The Saints can’t stop anybody on defense and are 0-4 on the road.

Drew Brees is fourth in the NFL in passing yards, but too many times
this year he has watched his defense lose games for his team.

If Carolina’s offense can finally start to click, the Saints are in serious trouble. They have had terrible injuries to their running backs and lack offensive firepower. The Panthers' lack of talent at receiver has been a concern since the offseason. No one is surprised at their struggles.

Cam Newton is completing on 60.1% of his passes this season.

This Thursday night matchup is a HUGE game for these two teams.  The winner could very well be a 7-9 playoff club.      

Colt McCoy

Last night on Monday Night Football, Daniel Colt McCoy led the Washington Redskins to a win over Jerry Jones' team in their palace of a football stadium, 20-17 in overtime.

I am here to tell you that Colt McCoy should become Washington's franchise quarterback.

While Kirk Cousins has been a solid fantasy player in a 2 QB league, he has been awful where it matters and is clearly not the long-term answer for Washington.  His audition is over. 

The outlook for the Redskins began to change last week.  McCoy came in for Cousins in the
opening possession of the second half against the Tennessee Titans.  Then this happened.  (If you're too lazy to click on that, just know it was a 70-yard touchdown pass to Pierre Garcon.)  The Redskins came back and won a game they so desperately needed.

And then last night happened.  Mr. McCoy passed for 299 yards, completing 25 of 30 passes, setting a franchise record for completion percentage for QBs who attempted at least 30 passes in a game.  He made plays with his legs and had a lot of success in play-action.  He inspired his offensive line and defense with plays like this one, which helped lead to a tough night for Tony Romo and his blockers.  McCoy lead his team to its second straight win against the previously 6-1 Dallas Cowboys. 

Now, you may think I'm crazy since McCoy is only 6-15 as a starter and is a small quarterback with small hands who lacks arm strength.  This is understandable.  However, McCoy started those 21 games with the Cleveland Browns, who were not good.  McCoy has weapons in Washington, including two athletic tight ends in Niles Paul and Jordan Reed, Garcon, Alfred Morris, Roy Helu, and DeSean Jackson (lord knows why in the world Philly ever cut this guy).   

McCoy is going to be successful because he is a flat-out WINNER.  He was the 2008 Heisman Trophy runner-up and was a 2009 Heisman finalist in college.  McCoy is second in NCAA Division I history for wins by a quarterback. 

You can't tell me that he can't be successful at the NFL level because he is an exceptional leader and he makes his teammates believe in his ability.  His arm strength clearly did not hold him back last night - he completed 6 passes of over 20 yards.  And besides, there are a few quarterbacks in the NFL that don't have the strongest arms but are pretty damn good.

We've seen this before in Washington, when RGIII took the NFL by storm and led his team to 7 straight wins after starting 3-6 to make the postseason.  If RGIII can't stay healthy, which I don't think he can, and be effective and consistent, I believe Colt keeps the Skins in the hunt until the very end.

Watch out, Washington.  The Real McCoy is coming.